2026-09-10: Broad decline

Fri, 11 Sep 2026 03:26:32 GMT

Broad decline — risk appetite +32

Broad decline. Only 27% of sectors hold their 50-day average with the index down over 20 sessions. Weakness this widespread is usually macro rather than company-specific.
Volatility at 9% annualised, 7th percentile. Compressed versus its own recent history. Calm periods invite leverage and tend to end abruptly, so low readings are a reason for care rather than comfort.
Average pairwise correlation 0.17. Names are moving independently, so security selection is being rewarded and index-level signals say less about any individual holding.
3 of 11 sectors above their 50-day average. Across the full universe 40% of instruments hold their 50-day average. Breadth confirms rather than contradicts the index here.
Best risk-adjusted trend: Oil & Gas E&P and Energy. Ranked by Sharpe ratio over 60 sessions at a zero risk-free rate, so return is judged per unit of volatility rather than on headline performance. Oil & Gas E&P returns 3.42 units of annualised return per unit of risk; Investment Grade Bonds is worst at -3.26.
5 instruments oversold on RSI. Wilder’s 14-day RSI above 70 means gains have dominated recent sessions, below 30 the reverse. Extremes mark stretched conditions, not reversals: in a strong trend readings can stay pinned for weeks.
27% of tracked turnover sits in SPY, MU and NVDA. Turnover is close price times shares traded, the one directly observed dollar figure here. Concentration shows where the day’s liquidity and attention actually went. Tracked turnover totalled $306B.
Unusual volume in UBER, XOP and ORCL. Volume more than two standard deviations above its own 20-day mean. Outliers this large usually mark news, an index change or a large repositioning, and they make the day’s price move more informative than a quiet one.
Energy and Communication Services leading, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary lagging. Relative strength measures each sector’s 20-session return minus the S&P’s, isolating rotation from market direction. Energy is +8.3% versus the index; Consumer Discretionary is −3.1%.
Oracle is −38.4% from its 6-month high. Distance from the window high shows where damage is concentrated. Recovering a −38.4% decline requires a +62.3% gain, which is why drawdowns matter more than they first appear.
The market is paying for beta. High-beta instruments (β above 1.2) returned −0.6% over 20 sessions against −1.0% for low-beta ones (β below 0.8). Taking more market risk has been profitable, which typically persists while volatility stays contained.
Price and volume disagree in MTUM and SPHB. On-balance volume accumulates volume on up days and subtracts it on down days. Falling price with rising on-balance volume suggests accumulation into weakness.
Return dispersion 8% across the universe. Narrow dispersion means most instruments are delivering similar returns, so selection adds little and exposure decides outcomes.
Crypto ETFs leading on risk-adjusted return. Comparing asset classes by Sharpe ratio rather than raw return: Crypto ETFs at 2.14 against Bonds at -2.61. Equal-weighted within each class, so no single large holding dominates the comparison.
Risk appetite +32, down 33 points in two weeks. Measured as offense baskets minus defensive baskets on 20-session return and trend participation. A move this large marks a genuine change in positioning rather than noise. Sector breadth over the same stretch went from 82% to 27%.
1,606 stocks up, 3,712 down across the whole market. 32% of the day’s share volume traded in stocks that closed higher. Advance/decline counts every listed name equally, so they show whether a move is the market or a handful of heavyweights. A split this lopsided means the direction is genuine, not an index artefact.
$189B traded in rising stocks, $451B in falling ones. No exchange reports who bought and who sold: every trade has a buyer and a seller. What is observable is direction paired with volume. Dollars changing hands while a price rises are accumulation; while it falls, distribution. AAPL, SPCX and MSFT saw the heaviest accumulation, MU, NVDA and SNDK the heaviest distribution.
Consumer Staples leads the market, Basic Materials lags. Average move of every listed stock in each sector, equal-weighted: Consumer Staples −0.1% across 122 names, Basic Materials −3.3% across 135. Equal weighting shows what the typical company in a sector did, which an index ETF dominated by its largest members will not.
Market stress 29/100 — normal. Seven conditions that tend to be present when markets fall, each scored against its own history and averaged: volatility, correlation, breadth, drawdown, credit spreads, safe-haven demand and volume participation. Currently the highest readings are breadth, up volume and safe havens. This describes today, it does not forecast tomorrow — elevated readings have preceded declines and have also faded without one. Nobody can time a crash; what these numbers can tell you is whether the conditions are fragile or resilient right now.

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2026-09-10: Broad decline